Last week, as a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas went into effect, worrying news for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emerged. A poll was released showing his approval rating to be at an ignoble 38%, likely a result of the banal conclusion of the conflict (although perfectly consistent with the goals initially set out, he has repeatedly said since). This has led to some misguided analyses, particularly from those who tend to project their own country’s political conventions on Israel’s politics, that have predicted the Prime Minister’s imminent downfall, or at least new elections within months.
The proportional representation system used by Israel, which led to 12 parties winning representation in parliament in 2013, creates a complicated web of interests that make it difficult to predict future governing coalitions and the durability of current ones. But it still seems this prediction is premature, and a few commentators have isolated the reasons why.
Yossi Verter, in the left-leaning Haaretz, said that despite Netanyahu’s fall in popularity, the aftermath of the ceasefire “did not produce a true alternative or generate a genuine challenger to him, certainly not in the foreseeable future”. He cites the miserable poll numbers of the opposition Labor party, which have barely moved an inch since it ousted its previous ineffective leader, Shelly Yachmovich, whose unreconstructed socialism failed to convince more than 13% of Israelis. The other center-left parties, mainly Hatnuah, Yesh Atid, and Meretz are likewise weak. Hatnuah and Yesh Atid (a combined 25 seats) are currently in the coalition (which has a 7 seat majority), and can force an election at almost any time. But as Verter emphasizes, this may be an electoral loss for them. For them it’s worth the wait. Ditto for the Right, who may not be completely satisfied with Netanyahu, but see no reason to give up their plush cabinet seats at this time. As Verter puts it, “[Lieberman], Bennett and Netanyahu are doomed to go on marching along their Via Dolorosa for some time to come”.
Furthermore, the ceasefire may prove better politically for Netanyahu. Brent Sasley writes:
it would be a mistake to start talking about the end of Netanyahu’s political career. In fact, while certainly many will raise questions about the inconclusive ending to the war and about how Netanyahu handled it, I don’t think the war will have much effect on his political position, at least in the short term. Mostly this is because none of Netanyahu’s rivals can claim to be a serious alternative to him. But it’s also because there were no major, obvious mistakes in the military campaign. What problems Netanyahu does face will emerge more from the particularly fractious nature of his coalition and the coming budget discussions, which pose a problem for all governments.
This is in stark contrast to the 2006 Lebanon War, which ultimately saw Ehud Olmert’s approval rating sink to–––not a typo––– 3%. Netanyahu has certainly taken a political hit, but the meteoric rise in popularity following the announcement of Operation Protective Edge wasn’t going to last. Neither, I suspect, will the post-ceasefire boom for the parties to the right of Likud. The question is whether the center-left can get its act together. Bradley Burston reported a rumor that Tel Aviv Mayor Ron Huldai and former Shin Bet director Yuval Diskin (who’s long been rumored to have grand political ambitions) are considering forming a liberal/centrist party. This would be a fine slate to challenge Netanyahu, but it won’t be built overnight. Netanyahu will survive another year, perhaps two. And this may, however paradoxically, be in the interests of his opposition.
